For Bush, Advances But Not Approval
For Bush, Advances But Not Approval
By Peter Baker
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 19, 2007; A01
The war in Iraq seems to have taken a turn for the better and the opposition at home has failed in all efforts to impose its own strategy. North Korea is dismantling its nuclear program. The budget deficit is falling. A new attorney general has been confirmed despite objections from the left.
After more than two years of being buffeted by one political disaster after another, President Bush and his strategists think they may finally be getting back at least a bit of their footing. While still facing enormous challenges, from the crisis in Pakistan to the backlash over children's health care, they hope Bush has arrested his downward spiral and established a better foundation for the remainder of his time in office.
In many ways, the shifting political fortunes may owe as much to the absence of bad news as to any particular good news. No one lately has been indicted, botched a hurricane relief effort or shot someone in a hunting accident. Instead, pictures from Iraq show people returning to the streets as often as they show a new suicide bombing. And Bush has bolstered morale inside the West Wing and rallied his Republican base through a strategy of confrontation with the Democratic Congress, built on the expansive use of his veto pen.
Yet none of this has particularly impressed the public at large, which remains skeptical that anything meaningful has changed and still gives Bush record-low approval ratings. The disconnect highlights his dilemma heading into the last year of his administration: Can anything short of a profound event repair an unpopular president's public standing so late in his tenure? Can tactical victories in Washington salvage a wounded presidency?
"The law of averages is finally turning our way," said Mark McKinnon, a Bush adviser. "Iraq's a big part of it." But it will have to be sustained over months to come to turn around public opinion, he added. "The fact that there's not substantial movement is not surprising. We have to get through the next part of next year and the [public] will start to look at the presidency through a different prism."
Some Democrats agree that Bush seems to be doing better politically, but said the White House is fooling itself to think it amounts to much of a recovery. Even though security has improved in Iraq, political reconciliation remains elusive. Economic signs at home appear increasingly worrisome. And, they said, the public has largely made up its mind on Bush.
"Look, they've stopped the bleeding, but they're not getting well," said William Galston, a former aide to Bill Clinton and a sometime adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). "While people are pleased that the war is going better, I think the American people have closed the book on the war. They don't think it was worth entering, they don't think it was worth fighting. So tactical victories on the ground that might have made a difference two years ago aren't moving the needle right now."
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said Bush's legacy has already been set, and it's more Franklin Pierce than Harry S. Truman. "George Bush's acolytes around the White House may think he's doing okay, but America doesn't," he said. "We now have a mess on our hands, and America's reputation is sullied around the world. George Bush may be doing well. It's the rest of America I'm concerned about."
Still, the changing dynamics in Washington were evident last week. Bush vetoed a spending bill for education, health-care and labor programs, and the House did not override him. The House passed, but the Senate rejected, another attempt to force Bush to withdraw troops from Iraq. Democrats have grown so frustrated about their failure that Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) was left to grouse about "this bully we have in the White House."
Bush, like other presidents, does better when he has a foil to play off of, whether an international enemy such as Osama bin Laden or Saddam Hussein, or a domestic political adversary such as Al Gore and Sen. John F. Kerry. Through much of 2005 and 2006, as he cratered politically, Bush had no particularly prominent rival to contrast with. But now he has the Democrats, who took over Congress in January and have provided him ammunition as their poll numbers fall.
"There's a reason they've become unpopular," said Karl Rove, who recently stepped down as deputy White House chief of staff. "They've taken stands that make them look churlish, small, petty and more interested in scoring political points than in doing good things for the country."
An us-vs.-them framework is comfortable for Bush. Some Republicans said he appears more spirited as he engages in a showdown over spending. "It's really a reinvigorated guy here," said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, who traveled with Bush recently to his home state of South Carolina. "It's noticeable. Things just seem to be moving forward and hitting on all cylinders."
White House officials point to several modest advances they say show that Bush is now more nimble politically and still able to achieve discrete victories, such as his housing plan, House approval of his free-trade pact with Peru, confirmation of Michael B. Mukasey as attorney general and the response to the California wildfires.
Key to his success has been keeping enough GOP lawmakers on his side to block Democratic initiatives, despite Republicans' lingering bitterness with Bush for not dumping Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld until the day after last year's election.
"Post-Rumsfeld and the debacle that that was, they had some fences to mend, and I would say to a great degree they have mended them," said House Republican Conference Chairman Adam H. Putnam (Fla.). "That was a setback to trust, but I think they've begun to rebuild that trust."
Most important has been Iraq. Bush calculated at the start of the year that the best hope of reviving his presidency was to restore security by fall. "So now I'm an October-November man," he told Robert Draper, author of "Dead Certain," in an interview in February. "I'm playing for October-November."
As Bush hoped, falling violence in October and November has bought him time. While it has not yielded the political accord it was supposed to, the sense that troops have made progress has made it harder to bring them home.
"A year ago, people were saying that the president and Republicans in Congress were ignoring any sign of bad news out of Iraq," White House counselor Ed Gillespie said. "You could make a compelling case today that Democratic leaders and Democratic members in Congress are ignoring any signs of good news out of Iraq. But the American people see the benefit of the surge."
For all that, violence in Iraq has simply returned to where it was roughly a year or two ago and other victories claimed by the White House betray a certain weakness as well as strength. A trade pact with Peru will hardly redefine this presidency, nor will initiatives on aviation congestion. Bush did get a new attorney general confirmed -- the handpicked choice of Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who helped force the president's close friend, Alberto R. Gonzales, to resign.
And the veto fights are all about stopping legislation, not passing it. The White House has given up hope of passing major proposals, such as overhauling Social Security or immigration laws, and it may not be able to reauthorize its first-term education program, No Child Left Behind. Instead, it is redefining itself as fiscally conservative after six years of increased spending while positioning against popular programs such as the State Children's Health Insurance Program, whose expansion Bush vetoed.
"Certainly the Republicans on the Hill, enough of them, have been willing to go down the line with the president to give him some short-term victories, or at least the ability to block some things," said Rep. David E. Price (D-N.C.). "I would say that's a perilous course for the Republican members."
At some point, Republicans may balk, as they did already in overriding Bush's veto of a water projects bill. "The Republicans are looking at the next election, and you can't depend too strongly on your allies in Congress staying with you if the expense of that is losing your seats," said former congressman E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R-Fla.), now a fellow at Harvard University.
Bush's strategy contrasts with those of Clinton and Ronald Reagan, the last two-term presidents, who recovered from political troubles late in their tenures. Both found ways to work with an opposition Congress to pass important legislation. Reagan left office with a 64 percent approval rating and Clinton with a 65 percent rating.
Neither had sunk as low as Bush, whose numbers are the worst of any president in decades. Just 33 percent of Americans approved of his performance in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, a rating that matches his record low and has not changed in four months. Potentially ominous for Bush is the economy. Only 35 percent of Americans rated it as good this month, a seven-point drop since spring and the lowest in two years.
"Most Americans made up their minds a long time ago about whether they approve of George W. Bush," said Charles Black, a GOP strategist who advises the White House. "I suspect his numbers will look better four or five months from now than they do now. The contravening force is there is some economic uncertainty out there."
By Peter Baker
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 19, 2007; A01
The war in Iraq seems to have taken a turn for the better and the opposition at home has failed in all efforts to impose its own strategy. North Korea is dismantling its nuclear program. The budget deficit is falling. A new attorney general has been confirmed despite objections from the left.
After more than two years of being buffeted by one political disaster after another, President Bush and his strategists think they may finally be getting back at least a bit of their footing. While still facing enormous challenges, from the crisis in Pakistan to the backlash over children's health care, they hope Bush has arrested his downward spiral and established a better foundation for the remainder of his time in office.
In many ways, the shifting political fortunes may owe as much to the absence of bad news as to any particular good news. No one lately has been indicted, botched a hurricane relief effort or shot someone in a hunting accident. Instead, pictures from Iraq show people returning to the streets as often as they show a new suicide bombing. And Bush has bolstered morale inside the West Wing and rallied his Republican base through a strategy of confrontation with the Democratic Congress, built on the expansive use of his veto pen.
Yet none of this has particularly impressed the public at large, which remains skeptical that anything meaningful has changed and still gives Bush record-low approval ratings. The disconnect highlights his dilemma heading into the last year of his administration: Can anything short of a profound event repair an unpopular president's public standing so late in his tenure? Can tactical victories in Washington salvage a wounded presidency?
"The law of averages is finally turning our way," said Mark McKinnon, a Bush adviser. "Iraq's a big part of it." But it will have to be sustained over months to come to turn around public opinion, he added. "The fact that there's not substantial movement is not surprising. We have to get through the next part of next year and the [public] will start to look at the presidency through a different prism."
Some Democrats agree that Bush seems to be doing better politically, but said the White House is fooling itself to think it amounts to much of a recovery. Even though security has improved in Iraq, political reconciliation remains elusive. Economic signs at home appear increasingly worrisome. And, they said, the public has largely made up its mind on Bush.
"Look, they've stopped the bleeding, but they're not getting well," said William Galston, a former aide to Bill Clinton and a sometime adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). "While people are pleased that the war is going better, I think the American people have closed the book on the war. They don't think it was worth entering, they don't think it was worth fighting. So tactical victories on the ground that might have made a difference two years ago aren't moving the needle right now."
House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said Bush's legacy has already been set, and it's more Franklin Pierce than Harry S. Truman. "George Bush's acolytes around the White House may think he's doing okay, but America doesn't," he said. "We now have a mess on our hands, and America's reputation is sullied around the world. George Bush may be doing well. It's the rest of America I'm concerned about."
Still, the changing dynamics in Washington were evident last week. Bush vetoed a spending bill for education, health-care and labor programs, and the House did not override him. The House passed, but the Senate rejected, another attempt to force Bush to withdraw troops from Iraq. Democrats have grown so frustrated about their failure that Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) was left to grouse about "this bully we have in the White House."
Bush, like other presidents, does better when he has a foil to play off of, whether an international enemy such as Osama bin Laden or Saddam Hussein, or a domestic political adversary such as Al Gore and Sen. John F. Kerry. Through much of 2005 and 2006, as he cratered politically, Bush had no particularly prominent rival to contrast with. But now he has the Democrats, who took over Congress in January and have provided him ammunition as their poll numbers fall.
"There's a reason they've become unpopular," said Karl Rove, who recently stepped down as deputy White House chief of staff. "They've taken stands that make them look churlish, small, petty and more interested in scoring political points than in doing good things for the country."
An us-vs.-them framework is comfortable for Bush. Some Republicans said he appears more spirited as he engages in a showdown over spending. "It's really a reinvigorated guy here," said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, who traveled with Bush recently to his home state of South Carolina. "It's noticeable. Things just seem to be moving forward and hitting on all cylinders."
White House officials point to several modest advances they say show that Bush is now more nimble politically and still able to achieve discrete victories, such as his housing plan, House approval of his free-trade pact with Peru, confirmation of Michael B. Mukasey as attorney general and the response to the California wildfires.
Key to his success has been keeping enough GOP lawmakers on his side to block Democratic initiatives, despite Republicans' lingering bitterness with Bush for not dumping Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld until the day after last year's election.
"Post-Rumsfeld and the debacle that that was, they had some fences to mend, and I would say to a great degree they have mended them," said House Republican Conference Chairman Adam H. Putnam (Fla.). "That was a setback to trust, but I think they've begun to rebuild that trust."
Most important has been Iraq. Bush calculated at the start of the year that the best hope of reviving his presidency was to restore security by fall. "So now I'm an October-November man," he told Robert Draper, author of "Dead Certain," in an interview in February. "I'm playing for October-November."
As Bush hoped, falling violence in October and November has bought him time. While it has not yielded the political accord it was supposed to, the sense that troops have made progress has made it harder to bring them home.
"A year ago, people were saying that the president and Republicans in Congress were ignoring any sign of bad news out of Iraq," White House counselor Ed Gillespie said. "You could make a compelling case today that Democratic leaders and Democratic members in Congress are ignoring any signs of good news out of Iraq. But the American people see the benefit of the surge."
For all that, violence in Iraq has simply returned to where it was roughly a year or two ago and other victories claimed by the White House betray a certain weakness as well as strength. A trade pact with Peru will hardly redefine this presidency, nor will initiatives on aviation congestion. Bush did get a new attorney general confirmed -- the handpicked choice of Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who helped force the president's close friend, Alberto R. Gonzales, to resign.
And the veto fights are all about stopping legislation, not passing it. The White House has given up hope of passing major proposals, such as overhauling Social Security or immigration laws, and it may not be able to reauthorize its first-term education program, No Child Left Behind. Instead, it is redefining itself as fiscally conservative after six years of increased spending while positioning against popular programs such as the State Children's Health Insurance Program, whose expansion Bush vetoed.
"Certainly the Republicans on the Hill, enough of them, have been willing to go down the line with the president to give him some short-term victories, or at least the ability to block some things," said Rep. David E. Price (D-N.C.). "I would say that's a perilous course for the Republican members."
At some point, Republicans may balk, as they did already in overriding Bush's veto of a water projects bill. "The Republicans are looking at the next election, and you can't depend too strongly on your allies in Congress staying with you if the expense of that is losing your seats," said former congressman E. Clay Shaw Jr. (R-Fla.), now a fellow at Harvard University.
Bush's strategy contrasts with those of Clinton and Ronald Reagan, the last two-term presidents, who recovered from political troubles late in their tenures. Both found ways to work with an opposition Congress to pass important legislation. Reagan left office with a 64 percent approval rating and Clinton with a 65 percent rating.
Neither had sunk as low as Bush, whose numbers are the worst of any president in decades. Just 33 percent of Americans approved of his performance in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, a rating that matches his record low and has not changed in four months. Potentially ominous for Bush is the economy. Only 35 percent of Americans rated it as good this month, a seven-point drop since spring and the lowest in two years.
"Most Americans made up their minds a long time ago about whether they approve of George W. Bush," said Charles Black, a GOP strategist who advises the White House. "I suspect his numbers will look better four or five months from now than they do now. The contravening force is there is some economic uncertainty out there."
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